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  • 中國城市和小城鎮改革發展中心官網
    中歐城鎮化伙伴關系秘書處官網

    “城市收縮”的焦慮:人口決定后發優勢

    來源:城市中國網2018年09月04日 19:58 【作者:城市化雜志 】 (編輯:竹書流年)

    本輪搶人大戰的背后,與中國當前面臨的城市化新階段休戚相關:

      隨著中國經濟步入新常態,城鎮化快速發展過程中伴隨的局部收縮現象近幾年逐漸引起學界的關注。大數據調查顯示:2007~2016年間,中國有84座城市出現了“收縮”,東北地區收縮城市已經連成了帶狀。

      國家發改委城鎮中心智庫副理事長、中國國際城市化發展戰略研究委員會專家顧問喬潤令近日指出中國城鎮化進程中相當多的城鎮在收縮:“十年間有一萬多個鄉鎮和街道辦事處的人口密度在下降,不僅有大量的‘空心村’,現在又出現了大量的空心街道辦和城市了。大數據顯示,中國的人口整體上在向東南部壓縮。城市收縮現象的被發現,對我們認識城市的發展、城市的分化,特別是房地產的起伏、土地的再利用都具有非常大的意義。”

    f2da681ade53e02a4a21ff576fb0a4f8.jpg


     
      “鐵銹帶”與“白人群飛”現象
     
      國際上城市收縮現象的研究始于德國,1988年德國學者H?u?ermann和Siebel首先提出“城市收縮”一詞,用來描述城市發展過程中長期存在的人口大量流失現象。最著名的收縮城市群在美國的鐵銹地帶(Rust Belt)。19世紀后期到20世紀初期,美國中西部因為水運便利、礦產豐富,成為重工業中心,鋼鐵、玻璃、化工、伐木、采礦、鐵路等行業發達。匹茲堡、芝加哥、底特律等工業城市也一度空前繁榮。自從美國步入第三產業為主導的經濟體系之后,這些地區的重工業紛紛衰敗。很多工廠被廢棄,廠房機器漸漸布滿了鐵銹,因此被稱為鐵銹地帶,簡稱銹帶。

      如今“鐵銹地帶”已經泛指工業衰退地區。德國政府資助項目Shrinking Cities證實:全球范圍內人口超過100萬的450個城市地區,總體上失去了原來人口的十分之一。

      論原因,首先是經濟結構的調整,老工業基地集中反映了聚集經濟的缺點,比如土地和勞動力的高成本和新增業務空間的缺乏。同時,技術創新也使得企業越來越自由,交通和資源對區位的影響力下降,越來越多的企業搬出了老工業基地。這些大規模的經濟結構改變,造成了歐洲地區的“去工業化”,美國的“銹帶”也屬于這一情況。

      其二是社會人口結構的改變,如歐洲國家和日本因為全國性的人口老齡化導致人口自然增長率下降,不少年輕人在就業的吸引下移入工作機會更多、生活水平更高的大城市,使得不少城鎮面臨收縮局面。

      其三是城市空間結構改變。美國“白人群飛現象(white flight,上世紀60年代美國結束種族隔離制度后,黑白混校。由于黑人學生的學術表現差、犯罪率高,或者有種種許多白人家長所認為的劣等品質,白人如同候鳥群飛一樣,紛紛離開大都市中的學校,搬到黑人住不起的郊區)”和“汽車文化 (car culture) ”,一定程度上,促使了中心城區的衰退和城市的無序蔓延,使得城市的居住環境大打折扣,人們也隨之遷移,造成美國大城市郊區化現象。

      其四是礦山等資源枯竭型城市。此外,還有政治因素等,比如德國的城市收縮現象集中在原民主德國的轄區內。

      近年來,我國東北地區因經濟衰退與人口流失已成為各界關注的焦點,有學者將其稱為中國的“銹帶地區”。目前,資源萎縮、環境污染、保守主義等問題正困擾著東北的發展。此外,東北亞地區復雜與不穩定的地緣政治概念也在跨國合作、區域發展政策等方面限制了中國東北地區的發展。

      “中國只有三四個城市有資格說不需要這么多的人”
     
      在中國當下,增長仍然是主旋律,收縮現象被人們所忽視。事實上,全球金融危機引發的出口加工工業的衰退和國內勞動力“劉易斯拐點”的到來,都使中國城市增長的條件發生變化。

      清華大學建筑學院副教授、博導龍瀛從三個尺度(小區、鄉鎮和城市)對中國城鎮的局部收縮現象進行研究。2013年,正在英國訪學的他無意間發現:分別在2000年和2010年開展的全國第五和第六次人口普查,數據精確到了鄉鎮和街道辦事處一級。

    1b558a7e92d3799416552eb750105ba2.jpg

      他與首都經濟貿易大學副教授吳康、中科院地理學與資源環境研究所的王江浩博士合作,通過大數據技術,把中國5萬多個鄉鎮和街道辦事處的人口數據做對比,結果讓人吃驚:2000-2010年間,中國有三分之一的國土人口密度在下降,有1萬多個鄉鎮和街道辦事處的人口在流失,有些甚至成了“空心街道辦事處”;中國行政意義上的600多個城市中,有180個城市的人口在流失。

      吳康也通過大數據調查,發現2007~2016年間,中國有84座城市出現了“收縮”。這些城市都經歷了連續3年或者3年以上的常住人口減少。他繪制了一幅地圖,一個黑點代表一座“收縮城市”。在這張地圖上,東北地區的黑點已經連成了帶狀,長三角和珠三角地區的黑點也成片出現。“按照城市生命周期,“這些城市很可能繼續‘收縮’下去,不是因為災難導致的驟然大幅收縮,我們的收縮城市一般都少于10%的人口流失。”吳康說。

      吳康把這些收縮城市分成五類:一種是結構性危機收縮類型。比如,原來伊春這樣的城市有很多人靠林業來發展就業,現在沒有了;二是像義烏這樣,原來有很多的工廠企業,現在因為上一輪國際經濟危機和產業升級影響,不需要這么多人了;三是大城市周邊城市的收縮,比如北京周邊的三河、高碑店,成都周邊的都江堰等;四是眾多欠發達的縣級市;五是一些邊境城市等。

      龍瀛說:現在北京、上海等特大城市都在控制人口,但是我認為,中國只有三四個城市有這樣的資格說我們不需要這么多的人。人口決定了一個城市的后發優勢。河南省和四川省都是人口大省,如今他們的中心城市就體現了一定的后發優勢。



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