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  • 中國城市和小城鎮改革發展中心官網
    中歐城鎮化伙伴關系秘書處官網

    “一帶一路”這五年,誰是最大贏家

    來源:城市中國網2018年09月04日 19:31 【作者:西部君 】 (編輯:竹書流年)

    今年是“一帶一路”倡議提出五周年,這兩天舉行的共建“一帶一路”五年進展情況及展望發布會,提供了階段性的成績單:

    2017年,中國與沿線國家貿易額達到7.4萬億人民幣,占進出口總額的26.6%;

    五年來,中國先后在20多個沿線國家建設了70多個境外經貿合作區,累計投資超過270億美元;

    為東道國創造了20.1億美元的稅費收入,創造了24.4萬個就業崗位;

    中國企業對沿線國家直接投資144億美元。

    2013年提出“一帶一路”計劃,2015年規劃發布,上述階段性成果只是開了個頭。按照對沿線國家直接投資7.2%的年增長速度,未來還將釋放更多的紅利。

    2015年發布的規劃中,全國共有18個省市被納入,各省市的定位不盡相同。比如新疆是絲綢之路經濟帶核心區;重慶是西部開發開放重要支撐;成都、鄭州、武漢、長沙、南昌等地,是內陸開放型經濟高地……

    定位不同,是區位條件的綜合反映,相對應的,各省市分到的蛋糕大小也不一樣。那么這五年誰是“一帶一路”的最大贏家?

    東部成為“一帶一路”絕對主導

    進出口貿易是否繁榮,跟經濟發展水平緊密掛鉤,有工業基礎,才有進出口的需要。所以總體上,與“一帶一路”沿線國家的貿易總額,東西部之間也存在明顯的差距。

    《“一帶一路”貿易合作大數據報告(2018)》顯示,2017年,東部地區與沿線國家貿易總額的占比達到79.8%,西部地區是10%,中部地區是6.0%,東北地區是4.3%。

    也就是說,7.4萬億人民幣的進出口貿易中,有八成左右是由東部省份完成,中部、西部和東北三大地區合起來,只貢獻了兩成左右的貿易額。

    中部6省經濟更加發達,但是處于內陸中心,向東、向西開放的地理距離都更遠,所以進出口貿易,拼不過省份更多,且有著向西開放天然優勢的西部。

    東部地區的外向型經濟一向發達,上述五個沿海地區,排在最后面的上海,與“一帶一路”國家的進出口總額,也比中部、東北地區要高。可見“一帶一路”的參與度,還是得靠經濟實力說話,這與共建原則中“堅持市場運作”的邏輯吻合,并不是純粹靠政策驅動。

    不過對西部而言,它可以補短板;加上東部地區的外貿空間,早已被深度挖掘,所以東中西部在“一帶一路”中受惠程度,沒有因為經濟實力的馬太效應而被拉大。

    這兩年,與沿線國家的貿易總額,增長最快的反而不是東部。比如2017年,東北地區進出口增長是22%,排第一;同樣是去年,西部地區進口額同比增長53.3%。

    所以,不能因為與“一帶一路”沿線國家的進出口貿易由東部地區主導,就認定東部是最大贏家。哪怕沒有“一帶一路”,要比貿易總量,東部地區也會有壓倒性優勢。

    “一帶一路”實施后,中西部地區快速增長,說明政策釋放的紅利比較明顯。

    西部地區誰是最大贏家

    雖然東部出盡風頭,但“一帶一路”對西部的戰略意義和重要程度,可能要比東部、中部和東北都要高很多。

    偏居一隅的地理位置,一直是西部最大的發展瓶頸,缺少對外交流,導致市場發育不成熟,經濟相對封閉。“一帶一路”將西部從對外開放的大后方,變為向西對外開放的前線,實現區位劣勢轉換。

    它的重要性,我們從西部各城市的規劃動作就可以看出來。

    西部各城市動作頻頻,是因為誰先掌握先機,在“一帶一路”向西推進的過程中,就能夠分得更多的蛋糕;往大了說,也是爭奪西部地區發展的話語權和主導權。

    所以,西部地區內部之間的競爭,要比東部、中部和東北更加激烈。

    為了更直觀地比較政策效果,以“一帶一路”提出的2013年為起點,對近五年來西部各省的進出口數據進行了梳理,具體如下:

    整體上,它仍然能夠反映出“一帶一路”提出這五年來,西部各省對外開放政策調整后,外貿情況的變化。

    進出口呈下降趨勢的,有7個省份,超過了半數。

    這說明“一帶一路”并不是對所有省份都有貿易增量。即便有增量,也沒能抵消與非“一帶一路”國家貿易下跌的額度。所以,從上圖中,我們能很直觀地看到,進出口貿易五年來有了明顯分化。

    過去五年的進出口,廣西陜西成為最亮眼的兩個省份。

    廣西的進出口貿易總額,從2013年的328.37億美元,上漲為2017年的571.21億美元,漲幅達到73.95%。

    陜西成為漲幅最大的地區,進出口貿易總額從201.27億美元,提升到401.1億美元,足足翻了一番。

    “一帶一路”這五年來,西部各省的進出口貿易變化,跟經濟實力的關系不顯著,但也有一些微弱的相關性。比如降幅很大的幾個地區,經濟相對都比較落后,外貿大起大落,本身是經濟不夠發達、產業結構缺少穩定性的體現。

    像廣西省,在西部一直很低調,經濟實力也比不過重慶、四川,不過臨海的地理位置,以及靠近珠三角的區位,讓它的進出口優勢被“一帶一路”政策放大,所以成為這五年來的漲幅之王。

    至于陜西,交通樞紐地位更不用說,加上自貿區的建設等因素,加工貿易近幾年高速增長。

    綜合來看,“一帶一路”的紅利,并不是均勻地匯集到了各地。

    在東中西的地區競爭中,西部有增速優勢,東部有體量優勢;

    而在西部內部的競爭中,未必是經濟實力最強,就可以分得更多的蛋糕,地理區位影響甚大。

    當然,哪怕說廣西和陜西是大贏家,也是暫時性的。

    從長遠來看,經濟實力對進出口的影響,還是會起作用。重慶和四川,仍然有很大的優勢,深挖“一帶一路”的紅利。

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