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  • 中國城市和小城鎮改革發展中心官網
    中歐城鎮化伙伴關系秘書處官網

    城市化信息與研究動態第六期

    來源:城市中國網2018年09月04日 19:17 (編輯:竹書流年)

    撤縣設市能推動經濟增長嗎?

      改革開放以前,我國以切塊設市為主,城市只管轄城區,城市和鄉村在區劃上是分離的。1980年浙江省啟動“整縣設市”試點,1983年民政部公布了“縣改市”標準,此后“整縣設市”逐漸成為我國設市的主要模式,城市也不再單單管理城市區域,同時還要管轄著農村。我國撤縣設市經歷了兩個較快發展階段,第一階段是1983—1988年,六年間新設縣級市192個,其中整縣設市174個,切塊設市18個。1992—1996年,撤縣設市又經歷了一個快速發展階段,在此期間全國共設立縣級市189個,其中整縣設市185個。1997年中央發文暫停撤縣設市工作,撤縣設市工作進入低谷。

      撤縣設市政策實施對縣域經濟社會發展影響在社會各界有不同認識,近期我們對這個問題進行了系統梳理。考慮數據獲取等多方因素,我們選擇1994—1997年期間撤縣設立的市,剔除此后又撤市設區的情況,共計有84個樣本,對樣本撤縣設市政策實施情況進行實證分析。為了反映撤縣設市政策實施效果,我們為每個樣本選擇一個參照系,參照系盡量與樣本選擇在同一地級市,且此前經濟發展速度相似,并在此期間未發生區劃調整行為。現將主要結果報告如下:

      一、撤縣設市對經濟發展激勵效果不明顯

      我們分別比較設市后5年(中短期)和5—10年(中長期)樣本與參照系的經濟發展速度,由于GDP數據缺失,對1994年設市樣本5年內以工農總產值數據進行替代,其后的經濟發展使用GDP數據。

      1、中短期經濟激勵效果未顯現

      在設市后中短期(調整后5年),新設市與參照系的經濟發展速度沒有明顯的差異。在1994年設市的44個樣本中,只有1個樣本年均經濟增速顯著快于參照系縣,36個樣本未出現明顯差異,且有6個樣本城市顯著慢于參照系縣。

    圖1 中短期工農業總產值年均增速對比(1994年樣本)
    圖1 中短期工農業總產值年均增速對比(1994年樣本)

      對1995—1997年撤縣設市的40個樣本,我們使用1997—2000年GDP增長速度反映中短期效果,結果同樣不顯著。 在40個樣本中,12個縣級市年均增長速度顯著快于參照系縣,16個縣級市對比不明顯,另外12個縣級市的年均增速顯著慢于參照系縣,總體來看效果是隨機的。

    圖2 中短期GDP年均增速對比(1995—1997年樣本)
    圖2 中短期GDP年均增速對比(1995—1997年樣本)

       2、中長期經濟激勵效果未顯現

      對1994年新設縣級市,設市十年后樣本的GDP總量是設市五年時的1.71倍,而參照系的GDP則是五年時的1.69倍,兩者之間未有顯著差異。就個體而言,在此期間有10個縣級市經濟發展速度快于參照系,21個對比不明顯,還有13個顯著慢于參照系縣。

    圖3 中長期GDP年均增速對比(1994年樣本)
    圖3 中長期GDP年均增速對比(1994年樣本)

      對1995—1997年新設市樣本,設市十年后樣本的GDP總量是設市五年時的2.03倍,而參照系則是五年時的2.11倍,略快于新設市樣本。就個體而言,有13個縣級市經濟增長速度顯著快于參照系,15個對比不明顯,還有12個顯著慢于參照系。

    圖4 中長期GDP年均增速對比(1995—1997年樣本)
    圖4 中長期GDP年均增速對比(1995—1997年樣本)

      總體來看,設市對經濟發展的影響并不明顯,從與參照系對比來看,參照系和撤縣設市樣本之間發展速度的快慢是隨機的,并未顯示出明顯的激勵效果。

      二、對城鎮人口增長有顯著負面效果

      五普和六普期間,我國城鎮人口總量增長了45.98%,而84個新設市樣本城鎮人口共增長31.58%,而參照系城鎮人口增長59.2%。撤縣設市樣本的城鎮人口增長比全國平均低14.4個百分點,比參照系低27.62個百分點。就個體而言,84個樣本中,僅有 7個城鎮人口增長速度是顯著快于參照系,而有48個樣本顯著慢于參照系,另外29個樣本影響不顯著。

    圖5 五普六普期間城鎮人口增長對比(1994-1997年樣本)
    圖5 五普六普期間城鎮人口增長對比(1994-1997年樣本)

      通過與全國城鎮人口增長以及參照系對比來看,撤縣設市樣本的城鎮人口增長顯著慢于參照系,有72.6%的樣本城鎮人口增長慢于參照系,其中接近一半的樣本與參照系城鎮人口增速相比慢20個百分點以上。由此可以認為,在過去一段時間撤縣設市抑制了城鎮人口的增長。

      三、小結

      從上述實證效果來看,撤縣設市對經濟增長的影響是隨機的,樣本和參照系之間并未顯示出明顯的激勵或抑制效果,而撤縣設市卻明顯地抑制了城鎮人口增長,撤縣設市樣本的城鎮人口在2000—2010年期間增長速度要顯著慢于全國平均水平和參照系,對此需要引起特別關注,創新撤縣設市模式是當前推進城鎮化工作的一項重要內容。


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